2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26

Week 4 big-game preview

Not a pick — a production forecast. Our ratings carry no win/loss input, so there is no spread here. What there is: each side's pass and rush units measured against the other's, and the stars' stat lines projected with the same opponent adjustment the engine uses to rate the games themselves. Numbers are the adjusted projection — season form shifted by this specific opponent.

Oklahoma at GeorgiaSat Sep 26, 7:30PM UTC
Georgia's 100th-percentile rush defense looks to smother Oklahoma's 86th-percentile running game — John Mateer projects for 210 pass yds.
Oklahoma Pass O → Georgia Pass D
offense1446 · 94th pct
defense1504 · 100th pct
edge -58 defense
Oklahoma Rush O → Georgia Rush D
offense1441 · 86th pct
defense1691 · 100th pct
edge -250 defense★ biggest edge
Georgia Pass O → Oklahoma Pass D
offense1570 · 99th pct
defense1408 · 95th pct
edge +162 offense
Georgia Rush O → Oklahoma Rush D
offense1564 · 97th pct
defense1536 · 97th pct
edge +28 offense

Oklahoma

John MateerQB · rtg 1401
210 Pass yds1.1 Pass TD25 Rush yds
Rocky BeersTE · rtg 1312
3.1 Rec40 Rec yds0.5 Rec TD
Isaiah Sategna IIIWR · rtg 1322
4.7 Rec70 Rec yds0.6 Rec TD

Georgia

Gunner StocktonQB · rtg 1412
195 Pass yds1.9 Pass TD25 Rush yds
Nate FrazierRB · rtg 1367
65 Rush yds0.5 Rush TD5 Rec yds
Chauncey BowensRB · rtg 1284
40 Rush yds0.4 Rush TD10 Rec yds
Texas at TennesseeSat Sep 26, 4:00PM UTC
Texas's 95th-percentile passing attack meets Tennessee's 86th-percentile pass defense — Arch Manning projects for 240 pass yds.
Texas Pass O → Tennessee Pass D
offense1471 · 95th pct
defense1350 · 86th pct
edge +121 offense★ biggest edge
Texas Rush O → Tennessee Rush D
offense1491 · 91st pct
defense1430 · 92nd pct
edge +61 offense
Tennessee Pass O → Texas Pass D
offense1494 · 96th pct
defense1430 · 96th pct
edge +64 offense
Tennessee Rush O → Texas Rush D
offense1542 · 94th pct
defense1556 · 98th pct
edge -14 defense

Texas

Arch ManningQB · rtg 1387
240 Pass yds1.9 Pass TD0.5 INT
Hollywood SmothersRB · rtg 1380
75 Rush yds0.4 Rush TD15 Rec yds
Emaree WinstonTE · rtg 1299
2.2 Rec25 Rec yds0 Rec TD

Tennessee

Faizon BrandonQB · rtg 1333
170 Pass yds1.2 Pass TD20 Rush yds
DeSean BishopRB · rtg 1399
80 Rush yds1.1 Rush TD5 Rec yds
Mike MatthewsWR · rtg 1307
3.7 Rec55 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
Oregon at Southern CaliforniaSat Sep 26, 11:30PM UTC
Oregon's 99th-percentile passing attack meets Southern California's 83rd-percentile pass defense — Dante Moore projects for 235 pass yds.
Oregon Pass O → Southern California Pass D
offense1592 · 99th pct
defense1331 · 83rd pct
edge +261 offense★ biggest edge
Oregon Rush O → Southern California Rush D
offense1548 · 95th pct
defense1302 · 68th pct
edge +246 offense
Southern California Pass O → Oregon Pass D
offense1653 · 100th pct
defense1493 · 99th pct
edge +160 offense
Southern California Rush O → Oregon Rush D
offense1440 · 86th pct
defense1470 · 93rd pct
edge -30 defense

Oregon

Dante MooreQB · rtg 1409
235 Pass yds1.8 Pass TD0.7 INT
Jordon DavisonRB · rtg 1364
60 Rush yds0.9 Rush TD5 Rec yds
Dierre Hill Jr.RB · rtg 1321
45 Rush yds0.3 Rush TD10 Rec yds

Southern California

Jayden MaiavaQB · rtg 1458
255 Pass yds1.8 Pass TD1 INT
King MillerRB · rtg 1391
85 Rush yds0.5 Rush TD5 Rec yds
Mark BowmanTE · rtg 1307
3.2 Rec30 Rec yds0.2 Rec TD
Texas A&M at LSUSat Sep 26, 11:30PM UTC
Texas A&M's 93rd-percentile passing attack meets LSU's 93rd-percentile pass defense — Marcel Reed projects for 225 pass yds.
Texas A&M Pass O → LSU Pass D
offense1444 · 93rd pct
defense1382 · 93rd pct
edge +62 offense★ biggest edge
Texas A&M Rush O → LSU Rush D
offense1508 · 93rd pct
defense1469 · 93rd pct
edge +39 offense
LSU Pass O → Texas A&M Pass D
offense1520 · 98th pct
defense1458 · 97th pct
edge +62 offense
LSU Rush O → Texas A&M Rush D
offense1414 · 81st pct
defense1457 · 93rd pct
edge -43 defense

Texas A&M

Marcel ReedQB · rtg 1406
225 Pass yds1.6 Pass TD30 Rush yds
Mario CraverWR · rtg 1345
4.4 Rec65 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
Rueben Owens IIRB · rtg 1291
55 Rush yds0.4 Rush TD10 Rec yds

LSU

Sam LeavittQB · rtg 1397
220 Pass yds1.1 Pass TD40 Rush yds
Trey'Dez GreenTE · rtg 1356
3.9 Rec50 Rec yds0.6 Rec TD
Dilin JonesRB · rtg 1327
60 Rush yds0.4 Rush TD5 Rec yds
Illinois at Ohio St.Sat Sep 26, 4:00PM UTC
Ohio St.'s 100th-percentile passing attack meets Illinois's 81st-percentile pass defense — Jeremiah Smith projects for 6.3 rec.
Illinois Pass O → Ohio St. Pass D
offense1367 · 83rd pct
defense1516 · 100th pct
edge -149 defense
Illinois Rush O → Ohio St. Rush D
offense1439 · 86th pct
defense1625 · 100th pct
edge -186 defense
Ohio St. Pass O → Illinois Pass D
offense1646 · 100th pct
defense1324 · 81st pct
edge +322 offense★ biggest edge
Ohio St. Rush O → Illinois Rush D
offense1588 · 99th pct
defense1348 · 78th pct
edge +240 offense

Illinois

Katin HouserQB · rtg 1370
230 Pass yds1.4 Pass TD0.9 INT
Kaden FeaginRB · rtg 1299
35 Rush yds0.3 Rush TD10 Rec yds
Collin DixonWR · rtg 1285
3.7 Rec55 Rec yds0.6 Rec TD

Ohio St.

Jeremiah SmithWR · rtg 1472
6.3 Rec95 Rec yds0.8 Rec TD
Bo JacksonRB · rtg 1400
75 Rush yds0.5 Rush TD15 Rec yds
Ja'Kobi JacksonRB · rtg 1299
40 Rush yds0.4 Rush TD0 Rec yds
Mississippi at FloridaSat Sep 26, 7:30PM UTC
Mississippi's 99th-percentile passing attack meets Florida's 85th-percentile pass defense — Kewan Lacy projects for 95 rush yds.
Mississippi Pass O → Florida Pass D
offense1603 · 99th pct
defense1336 · 85th pct
edge +267 offense★ biggest edge
Mississippi Rush O → Florida Rush D
offense1546 · 95th pct
defense1406 · 87th pct
edge +140 offense
Florida Pass O → Mississippi Pass D
offense1448 · 94th pct
defense1362 · 90th pct
edge +86 offense
Florida Rush O → Mississippi Rush D
offense1492 · 92nd pct
defense1408 · 88th pct
edge +84 offense

Mississippi

Kewan LacyRB · rtg 1416
95 Rush yds1.3 Rush TD10 Rec yds
Caleb OdomTE · rtg 1319
2.8 Rec35 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
Luke HaszTE · rtg 1299
2.3 Rec20 Rec yds0.2 Rec TD

Florida

Aaron PhiloQB · rtg 1342
225 Pass yds1.2 Pass TD1 INT
Jadan BaughRB · rtg 1455
100 Rush yds1 Rush TD15 Rec yds
Luke HarpringTE · rtg 1265
2 Rec20 Rec yds0 Rec TD
Iowa at MichiganSat Sep 26, 7:30PM UTC
Michigan's 99th-percentile pass defense looks to smother Iowa's 32nd-percentile passing game — Hank Brown projects for 110 pass yds.
Iowa Pass O → Michigan Pass D
offense1158 · 32nd pct
defense1488 · 99th pct
edge -330 defense★ biggest edge
Iowa Rush O → Michigan Rush D
offense1453 · 89th pct
defense1576 · 99th pct
edge -123 defense
Michigan Pass O → Iowa Pass D
offense1306 · 64th pct
defense1498 · 99th pct
edge -192 defense
Michigan Rush O → Iowa Rush D
offense1563 · 97th pct
defense1562 · 99th pct
edge +1 offense

Iowa

Hank BrownQB · rtg 1295
110 Pass yds0.5 Pass TD0.6 INT
DJ VonnahmeTE · rtg 1322
2.8 Rec35 Rec yds0.2 Rec TD
Kamari MoultonRB · rtg 1383
75 Rush yds0.4 Rush TD5 Rec yds

Michigan

Bryce UnderwoodQB · rtg 1350
170 Pass yds0.8 Pass TD25 Rush yds
Jordan MarshallRB · rtg 1373
70 Rush yds0.7 Rush TD5 Rec yds
JJ BuchananWR · rtg 1328
4.2 Rec65 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD

Unit elos are each team's most recent pre-game rating; percentiles rank them against every FBS unit active this season. Player projections use matchup_project's engine-consistent adjusted form (season average plus the inversion-derived opponent delta), the variant that beats the season-average and league-median baselines in backtest. Stars are chosen by current rating and in-team usage share. Forecasts, not guarantees — we grade them next week.